Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election liveblogging

Been away for a couple hours playing Rock Band; doesn't look like I missed much. Still no exit polls, which are useless anyway, so when they do come out and show an Obama blowout, don't pay attention to them!

Stay tuned....

6:11 PM - SuperBarack:

Just awesome.

6:25 PM - Whoever produced that Reverend Wright ad spent a shitload of money on airtime. I've seen it at least five or six times since last night, and I haven't even watched much TV.

6:37 PM - Yglesias takes the time to remind us all just how horrible Bush is. No argument here.

6:47 PM - Like clockwork. Drudge:


Allow yourself to be optimistic. But take nothing for granted. Exit polls are utterly unscientific and highly unreliable.

6:59 PM - Well, I'm all set. I've got CNN on my TV, MSNBC on my PC, and an IE tab open for TPM. And I've started drinking. First polls close in one minute. Fired up and ready to go!

7:03 PM - Ah, dammit. Looks like they can't report results until all the polls in a state close. Well, that totally spoils my fun.

7:20 PM - John King's talking about the glum situation for House Republicans. The best case scenario for them is a loss of around 25 seats, but if there's a big turnout for Obama, and those voters remember to vote for congressmen, they could be looking at a 30-35 seat loss. Ouch.

7:33 PM - Okay, CNN's got some results, very early ones, of course, but so far, McCain's winning Kentucky (no surprise), and Obama's winning Indiana with 20,000 or so votes in. Doesn't mean much, but normally the rural counties report first, so that may be a good sign.

7:54 PM - Obama's still hanging onto a narrow lead in Indiana, with about 80,000 votes in. It doesn't look like the bigger urban areas have started reporting yet, so this could be very good news for Obama. The last few polls showed McCain around 5 points ahead in that state, so if Indiana is a nail-biter, McCain is finished.

BTW, it looks like TPM's cool election map thingy is fucked. I'm trying IE and Firefox and can't get it to load. Will check it later.

8:14 PM - Just had a quick supper; Indiana is still very close, Kentucky called for McCain and Vermont called for Obama, with polls now closed in Virginia and South Carolina. Scarborough basically already called the election for the Democrats, saying that if you're a Republican, and Indiana and South Carolina are "too close to call", you better be worried. I agree.

8:31 PM - Still very, very early. Can't read much into the Florida/Virginia/Georgia numbers just yet, but Indiana is the real story so far, with Obama neck and neck with McCain even without the Democratic strongholds of Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Gary reporting at all.

9:06 PM - I'm starting to feel good about Florida; Obama seems to have banked a lot of early votes. Virginia is a little annoying thus far, with McCain holding a persistent lead, but I don't know which areas are reporting or which areas are strong for Obama.

9:16 PM - Lots of numbers coming in now; most of it looks good. MSNBC and ABC have already called Pennsylvania for Obama, based on a pretty overwhelming exit poll, I guess. Terrible news for McCain. Flipping PA was his one chance at pulling off the upset.

Going to start a new post, as this one is getting crowded.

No comments: