Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Prediction craziness

Kos has a post up making fun of Bill O'Reilly's ridiculous pre-election projection. O'Reilly classified states like Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan (which McCain gave up on well over a month before the election and where polls showed Obama 15-20 points up), Iowa, and Pennsylvania as tossups, while putting Indiana and North Carolina solidly into the McCain column. As late as October 29, a Republican loyalist could have looked at that map and thought they were winning.

Kos also ridicules Dick Morris's map, not so much for silly Republican optimism, but just for its sheer craziness and inconsistency.

Morris is a little strange, to put it mildly. He was an advisor in the Clinton administration before being caught up in a sex scandal involving a prostitute and a preference for "toe-sucking and dominance". He and Clinton did not part on good terms.

Since then, he has spent his time sniping at Democrats, making stupid electoral predictions, and appearing on Fox news, saying idiotic things like "Sarah Palin is the new Ronald Reagan".

For my part, I'd say my prediction was pretty close to the mark. I came within 2 electoral votes (367 predicted; actual was 365), and the only states I got wrong were North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. Like many others, I thought Missouri would go blue before Indiana. My popular vote prediction was 52-47; it ended up being 52.6-46.1.

No comments: